The Nets will win if ...
They can control the tempo. New Jersey can't beat Detroit in a half-court game. The Pistons' D is too good. The Nets need to get out and run as much as possible. The good news for New Jersey is that with Jason Kidd, Richard Jefferson and Kenyon Martin, it has three stud defenders to slow down the likes of Chauncey Billups, Richard Hamilton and Rasheed Wallace and force Detroit into a lot of missed shots. The Nets took San Antonio to six games in last year's Finals using the same strategy. The Pistons, however, don't have a low-post scorer like Tim Duncan to get as many easy baskets.
If New Jersey can make stops and get the rebound, they just might be able to score enough in transition to win the series. New Jersey isn't a deep team, but it's got hard-nosed role players in Kerry Kittles, Lucious Harris, Jason Collins, Aaron Williams and Rodney Rogers. Kidd, meanwhile, gives them a proven winner who's not afraid to take big shots at crunch time. New Jersey's biggest edge is its mental toughness. As two-time defending Eastern Conference champs, the Nets know what it takes. They aren't afraid to get bloody. They won't go down without a fight.
The Pistons will win if ...
They can match the Nets' mental toughness. The Pistons have more talent than New Jersey. Billups, Hamilton, Rasheed Wallace, Tayshaun Prince, Ben Wallace, Corliss Williamson, Mehmut Okur and even Lindsey Hunter and Mike James are each good enough to come in and play a big role in this series. Meanwhile, the Pistons' D should suffocate a New Jersey offense that lacks outside shooters.
However, the Pistons must stay focused against a Nets team that will keep attacking. Rasheed Wallace, in particular, must not get sidetracked by Martin's physical play or the referees. He and his teammates must remember to keep a body on the Nets at all times to keep them off the glass. Billups must remember to share the ball on offense and not get baited into a one-on-one duel with Kidd. Last year the Pistons had home-court advantage against the Nets in the conference finals and lost both of the first two games, each by two points, en route to getting swept. Detroit learned it's the little things (like transition defense and careless turnovers) that add up against New Jersey. Now the Pistons just have to go out and show it.
Key matchup
Rasheed Wallace vs. Kenyon Martin. They're two of the more talented -- and volatile -- power forwards in the NBA, and they're both free agents after the season. Wallace must maintain his poise against the punishing Martin, keep him out of transition as much as possible and pull him away from the basket by knocking down outside shots. Wallace has been bothered of late by a sore left foot, but says he can play through it. Martin must hang with 'Sheed on the perimeter and yet still get back to the defensive boards so New Jersey can run its break. Martin will probably have the bigger numbers. But if Rasheed just hits a few outside shots, provides Ben Wallace some shot-blocking help and generally keeps K-Mart from running wild, the Pistons will be happy.
Interesting fact
The Pistons were 20-6 (.769) after acquiring Rasheed Wallace in a trade with the Hawks. They were 34-22 (.607) before his arrival. Defensively, they went from allowing an average of 86.8 points per game to an average of 78.8 points per game.
The pick
As long as Kidd and Martin are healthy, New Jersey has a chance. But Detroit's D is stifling, and the Pistons just have more weapons. Pistons in seven.